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MuddyWaters
Initial Report Date(2020/11/11)Share Price:7.010
Initial Report Date(2020/11/11)Share Price:7.010
MultiPlan: Private Equity Necrophilia Meets The Great 2020 Money Grab (MPLN US)
Details Link > Muddy Waters is short shares and credit of MultiPlan Corp f/k/a Churchill Capital Corp III. Our key reasons are:
MPLN is in the process of losing its largest client, UnitedHealthcare (“UHC”). UHC has formed a competitor to MPLN that offers significantly lower prices and fewer conflicts of interest. The competitor is called Naviguard.
We understand that by the end of 2022, Naviguard aims to convert all key UHC accounts, which constitute the majority of MPLN’s UHC business.
We estimate that this defection and competition will decrease 2022E revenue by 35% and levered free cash flow by 80%, while net leverage should balloon to more than 8.0x.
MPLN was already in financial decline, and its financial statements were engineered to obscure this existing deterioration. We understand that in 2018, MPLN released revenue reserves, dropping them from approximately 30% to 10% of revenue, which we believe enabled MPLN to show 2018 EBITDA growth amid shrinking sales.
By wantattse
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