Our base case is that New Pacific has its concessions and agreements with the state revoked entirely or negotiated on far less favorable terms. Even if the company retains its concessions (which we don’t think it will) New Pacific shares trade at vastly inflated levels, representing 85% downside on a purely fundamental basis. All told, we see 90%+ downside for shares of New Pacific and 25%-45% downside for shares of related Silvercorp, which owns almost a 29% stake in the company.